“During
the COVID-19 pandemic liner operators increased the average sailing speed by up
to 4% due to strong demand and widespread port congestion. Today, the
situation is very different and in the first quarter of 2023 the average
sailing speed has slowed to 13.8 knots, down 4% y/y, and could drop by 10%
before 2025,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping
Analyst at BIMCO.
When
ships adjust their speed the transport capacity is affected, and the adjustment
can be an effective way of managing capacity supply. Lower sailing speeds also reduce bunker oil
consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Slow steaming was first introduced in
the aftermath of the financial crisis, cutting sailing speed on mainline routes
by as much as 20%.
“Average sailing speed has reduced
significantly, although the traditional faster speed in the head-haul direction
remains. The larger ships sailing intercontinental trades have also continued
to sail faster than the smaller ships in intra-regional trades. These
traditions may, however, also be about to change,” says Rasmussen.
In
2019, the largest ships sailed on average 2.6 knots faster than the smallest
ships. During first quarter of 2022 that speed
difference had narrowed to 1.8 and further to 1.6 during the first quarter of
2023. As a result, the average sailing speed weighted by the ships’ TEU
capacity fell by 6% y/y in the first quarter of 2023 whereas the simple average
sailing speed fell only 4% y/y. Supply has therefore decreased faster than the sailing
speed.
The speed difference between head-haul and back-haul
direction may also be reduced in the future…
“In part, the lower average sailing speed may be due to improved port congestion and some ships returning more slowly to Asia-Pacific than normal. However, we still believe it is a good indication of things to come. As highlighted in our Container Market Overview & Outlook reports throughout 2022, we believe that sailing speeds could fall by 10% before 2025,” says Rasmussen.