Start of Southwest Monsoon likely to be weak

The Onset of the South West Monsoon in the Kerala coast has been delayed by a few days in a clear indication of a weak start to the rainy season.  From its earlier forecast of June 4, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) now anticipates a delay of three to four days.

Despite bringing rain to the Arabian Sea, the monsoon winds have failed to touch Kerala, leaving weather experts concerned about a delayed onset. Satellite images have revealed the presence of rain clouds over the Arabian Sea, but their impact on the mainland has been minimal so far. 

With the latest developments, it is now more or less evident that the monsoon is unlikely to make a forceful entry this year. The speed and trajectory of the low-pressure system forming in the Arabian Sea will play a crucial role in determining the subsequent rainfall activity

After sweeping through Lakshadweep, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka, the development of a cyclonic system in Arabian Sea has impeded the progress of the westerly winds, which are crucial to the onset of the monsoon in Kerala. 

Conditions (are) becoming favorable with the increase in westerly winds over the South Arabian Sea. Also, the depth of westerly winds is gradually increasing and June 4, the depth of westerlies has reached up to 2.1km above the mean sea level,” the IMD said.

“The cloud mass over the southeast Arabian Sea is also increasing. We expect that these favorable conditions for monsoon onset over Kerala will further improve during the next three-four days,” the Met Department said