According to the International Energy Agency (IEA),
Brazil’s oil production reached 3.49 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2023, up
from 3.12 mbpd the year before. Crude tanker exports increased from 1.35 mbpd
in 2022 to 1.61 mbpd in 2023, and the country’s share of crude tanker exports
thereby grew from 3.5% to 4.1% in 2022 and 2023 respectively.
“Brazil’s
crude tanker exports to China grew 55% year-on-year from 0.41 mbpd in 2022 to
0.64 mbpd in 2023, accounting for 88% of the increase in Brazil’s crude tanker
exports overall. The increased buying from Brazil also contributed nearly 30%
of the 12% increase in Chinese crude tanker imports in 2023,” says
Rasmussen.
The increased share of volume exported to China
contributed to an increase of 4% in the average sailing distance for Brazil’s
exports. Brazil therefore contributed 23% more
tonne miles to crude tanker demand in 2023 than in 2022 equal to 5.8% of global
tonne miles demand.
The shift in the destinations for
Brazil’s exports also resulted in a shift between ship segments. VLCCs
benefitted from the longer voyages and Brazil’s VLCC volumes and tonne miles
increased respectively 49% and 44% over 2022.
The IEA expects Brazil’s oil production
to increase by 0.24 mbpd in 2024. As refinery capacity and refinery runs are
expected to remain static, we expect that the country’s crude tanker exports
could grow by up to 15% in 2024.
China is expected to be the country with the biggest
increase in oil demand in 2024. We can therefore expect that tonne miles for
Brazil’s crude tanker exports will again grow faster than volumes and that
VLCCs will benefit the most.
“Driven
by increased production in Brazil, US, Guyana, and Canada, the Americas region
is expected to produce 1.4 mbpd more oil in 2024 whereas global production is
expected to increase only 1.3 mbpd. The whole region is therefore expected to
follow Brazil’s development; more exports, longer voyages, and a greater share
of the global crude tanker market,” says Rasmussen.