IMO delay could spark fragmentation risks, warns EmissionLink

“What looks like a pause is, in reality, an open door for national governments to move ahead with their own systems,” Mr Ioulianou said. “Instead of gaining clarity, we risk creating a patchwork of unaligned carbon schemes that will make global compliance significantly harder for shipowners.”

Several countries are already moving to fill the void. The UK’s Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS) will come into force in June 2026, Turkey is preparing its own version, and Gabon on Africa’s west coast has openly discussed a local carbon levy. According to Mr Ioulianou, more governments are likely to follow, driven as much by fiscal pressures as environmental goals. “For many governments facing widening budget gaps, carbon pricing offers a quick route to new revenue,” he noted. “Without a unified global framework, carbon markets could become less about decarbonisation and more about balancing the books.”

Mr Ioulianou warns that regionalised systems will multiply reporting formats, verification rules and administrative burdens, creating real operational risks.

“Good luck to the shipowner who gets it wrong. Picture a vessel calling at a West African port, unaware of a newly introduced local regulation. The port authority could detain it for non-compliance and the owner is left footing the bill”, he said.

He added that some owners are already adjusting trade patterns to avoid overlapping schemes. “We’re hearing from Asian owners who are quietly steering clear of certain European routes due to compliance complexity. That should concern everyone.”

Mr Ioulianou also raised concerns about how revenues from emerging national carbon schemes will be used.     “There is no assurance that these funds will flow back into decarbonisation,” he said. “Some governments won’t even know how much they’ll collect until year-end and once the money arrives, the temptation to redirect it to other priorities will be strong.”

With more uncertainty set to continue, Mr Ioulianou urged shipowners to strengthen their approach to monitoring and managing compliance.   “Managing this manually, port by port or across scattered spreadsheets, is no longer realistic,” he said. “Owners need real-time intelligence on regulatory changes and data they can act on — long before they reach the next port of call.”   Mr Ioulianou highlighted EmissionLink’s role in supporting the industry through this shift. “We continuously track global emissions schemes, translating fast-moving regulation into practical guidance. Our aim is to help owners stay compliant, keep trading and avoid being caught out by local policy changes.”

Without decisive action from the IMO, Mr Ioulianou warned, the trend toward regionalisation could become irreversible. “Every new national scheme makes it harder for the IMO to rebuild a globally aligned approach later,” he said. “Once rules fracture into regional pieces, putting them back together will be extremely difficult.”   “The delay was meant to give the industry time to adapt. Instead, it risks creating confusion, competition and complacency. The world isn’t waiting for a decision, it’s moving ahead, one emissions scheme at a time.”