Trump’s Strait call to arms falling on deaf ears

Iran’s stranglehold on the throat of global trade is showing no signs of loosening, except for those vessels granted passage by Iranian authorities.      The call from Washington to its allies and other ‘interested parties’ to secure the Strait of Hormuz appears to have failed for a range of reasons but could be seen as an acceptance by the Trump administration that it, along with Israel are not able to reopen this vital navigational chokepoint alone.     

According to Corey Ranslem, CEO at risk intelligence platform Dryad Global: “The requirement to protect ships in the Straits will depend on the Iranian military strike capabilities. That will really dictate what is needed to secure the Straits.”       Ranslem, however, points out that the other critical piece of the puzzle will be the London insurance market.      “Even if there are military ships in the region and they are providing escorts, the London insurance market still might not like the risk. If the coverage is difficult to get or very expensive, ships will not be moving through the region either,” said Ranslem.

The UK, America’s most willing partner in past conflicts, has said it will not deploy its military unless there is a coherent plan on the table outlining the mission’s aims, and that no such plan currently exists.       Japan and Australia have also refused to send naval vessels, while the EU will meet today to decide whether to extend the Aspides mission operating around the Red Sea to the Arabian Gulf. It is understood that Aspides currently has an Italian and a Greek vessel under its command with a second Italian vessel and French ship also on call.     

“The conversation on Monday will be about trying to have more member states contribute further capacities,” a senior EU official told Reuters yesterday. (15 Mar)     

Germany’s Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul was to the point, when he reportedly claimed Aspides was not even effective in carrying out its current task.    

From Sceptical Germans to reluctant British prime ministers, the threat by Trump that “it would be very bad for NATO” if support was not forthcoming seems to have been ineffective due to a reluctance to be drawn into a wider conflict with no clear aims.     

Other states are making different arrangements, with Turkey negotiating the safe passage of one vessel last week and waiting on clearance for others. France and Italy are in negotiations with Iranian officials to open the strait to their vessels, according to Al Jazeera reports. South Korea said it is monitoring the situation.     

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs is calling for a ceasefire and for “all parties to have the responsibility to ensure stable and unimpeded energy supplies.”