US - Iran deal: how quickly will the Strait of Hormuz reopen

“Islamabad MoU shall enter into force with immediate effect and as a first step, Islamic Republic of Iran will instantly reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the United States of America will immediately lift the naval blockade,” Pakistan Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif posted on X. The MoU between the US and Iran was brokered by Pakistan and Qatar.      How quickly the Strait will really reopen will really be seen with the threat of mines remaining in the key waterway.      The MoU takes the form of a 14-point document of which points four and five deal with the US blockade and the Strait of Hormuz.             Point four on the US blockade states: “Immediately upon the signing of this MoU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

In a sign that the US was already relaxing the blockade even before the MoU was signed three Iranian tankers loaded with crude oil the NITC VLCCs Diona and Hero 2 and Suezmax Sonia 1 exited the blockade earlier in the week, the first such shipping movements in two months.

Point five on the Strait of Hormuz states: “Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days.”          Prior to the conflict around 138 vessels a day transited the waterway carrying around 20% of the world’s oil and gas supplies and around 20- 30% of global fertiliser volumes. The region also accounts for around 10% of container shipping volumes that move via the Strait. Shipping traffic may be reluctant to return as is explored by Punit Oza, Founder of Maritime NXT - A ceasefire is not a peace deal.          A few ships could be seen exiting the Strait on 18 June morning with French-flagged LNG Mraikh and Hong Kong-flagged tanker Ye Chi  crossing the Strait in Iranian waters to the south of Larak Island at 09:15 hrs Iranian time, while a Cook Islands-flagged tanker had made the same transit earlier, based on AIS tracking data from Pole Star Global.     

On the longer term future of navigation in the Strait the MoU states: “The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.”

What form this will take remains unclear and there are concerns that it could include a toll by another name in the form of some kind of navigational or security fee charged to ships, however, such a move would likely face opposition from other Gulf states dependent on the Strait for shipping access to the wider world. Control of the Strait of Hormuz has been a central point of leverage for Iran in the conflict and it has tried to enshrine this in its national laws with the creation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and charging a toll for ships transiting through its waters.      An immediate priority will be the evacuation of ships that have been stranded in the Gulf region since the start of the war on 28 February with an estimated 20,000 seafarers on onboard.