Grain Shipments Rise 13% in 2026, but Weaker Second Half Outlook Looms: BIMCO

According to Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO, improved harvests across most major exporting countries have boosted export surpluses, resulting in higher grain shipments to Asia, the Middle East and North Africa.Grain imports into China have risen 15% year-on-year, supported by stronger purchases of soybeans, sorghum and barley. An improvement in trade relations between the United States and China has led to a remarkable 137% increase in U.S. grain shipments to China, reversing the weakness witnessed last year. Demand has also strengthened across Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines, with higher imports of wheat, maize and soybeans.Despite disruptions caused by the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, grain trade to the broader Middle East and North Africa region has increased 18% year-on-year. While imports into the Persian Gulf declined by 49%, stronger shipments to Saudi Arabian ports on the Red Sea and to Fujairah helped offset much of the decline.

The rise in grain volumes has significantly benefited the Supramax dry bulk segment, with grain shipments increasing 27% year-on-year. This has translated into a 4% increase in global Supramaxtonne-mile demand, providing important support to freight rates.

“Without the increase in grain shipments, Supramax demand would instead have stagnated,” said Gouveia.The Handysize and Panamax segments also recorded higher grain cargo volumes, rising 10% and 8%, respectively. For Handysize vessels, stronger grain demand helped offset weaker coal and minor bulk cargoes, while Panamax vessels experienced a comparatively smaller impact due to continued strength in coal shipments.However, BIMCO warned that several factors could weigh on grain trade in the coming months. Fertilizer supplies remain constrained following an 8% decline in global fertilizer shipments, largely due to reduced exports from the Persian Gulf. Unless the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal operations, fertilizer shortages could adversely affect crop yields in the Southern Hemisphere’s next harvest season.In addition, prolonged high temperatures across parts of Europe and North America are threatening maize crops ahead of the September harvest.

Looking ahead, BIMCO expects grain shipments to moderate during the second half of 2026. According to projections from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global wheat and maize production is expected to decline slightly from last year’s elevated levels. At the same time, increased grain production in major importing countries such as China and Türkiye is likely to reduce import demand, further softening global trade volumes.

“The outlook for grain shipments appears weaker for the second half of 2026,” Gouveia concluded.