From August 26, the maximum authorised draft will fall to 48 feet (14.63 m), before being reduced again to 47.5 feet (14.48 m) from September 3 until further notice. The Panama Canal Authority said the changes reflect levels in Gatun Lake and projected hydrological conditions.      The cuts are the fourth and fifth draft adjustments announced this year. They follow limits of 49 feet from July 24 and 48.5 feet from August 15.   For now, the authority is maintaining transit numbers, arguing that water-saving measures introduced in December have left it better prepared than during the last drought. Officials continue to monitor lake levels and forecasts for signs that more restrictions will be required.

The industry has painful memories of the previous El Niño. Splash reported extensively as the 2023 drought forced the canal to cut the neopanamax draft from its normal 50 feet to 44 feet and reduce transits from around 40 to the mid-20s.      Queues exceeded 160 ships at the height of the disruption, delays stretched beyond two weeks and one operator paid a record $4m at auction for a priority transit slot. Owners diverted vessels onto longer routes as the cost and uncertainty of crossing Panama surged.      The crisis lasted well into 2024. It took sustained rainfall before the canal could restore a 48-foot draft and lift daily capacity towards normal levels.   The latest climate outlook gives owners little room for complacency. The US Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is strengthening and has a 97% chance of persisting into early spring 2027.   El Niño typically brings drier conditions to Panama. Although the canal authority insists the measures are precautionary and will not reduce transit volumes, further draft cuts could force neopanamax containerships and gas carriers to load less cargo or seek alternative routes.