Hormuz reopens under US-Iran deal amid uncertainty over future transit fees

The 14-point “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding” was signed electronically by US and Iranian officials and is due to be formally signed on Friday, triggering a 60-day negotiation period aimed at securing a final settlement. The agreement immediately halts military operations between the two sides, commits both parties to refrain from future military action against one another, and sets out a roadmap for restoring commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.      For the shipping industry, the most significant provisions relate to the reopening of one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints. Under the memorandum, the US will begin removing its naval blockade immediately and fully end it within 30 days, while Iran has committed to ensuring the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz free of charge for a period of 60 days. Iran has also agreed to undertake demining operations and remove technical and military obstacles affecting navigation.      The agreement further states that commercial vessel traffic should begin immediately, although both sides acknowledge that restoring flows to pre-war levels will take time. Maritime experts have already warned that clearing congestion, addressing security concerns and removing hazards accumulated during the conflict could take several weeks before normal trading patterns return. Beyond shipping access, the memorandum includes substantial economic concessions. Washington has committed to supporting a reconstruction and economic development framework worth at least $300bn, while also agreeing to issue waivers allowing Iranian crude oil exports, petroleum products, associated banking services, insurance and transportation activities to resume. The agreement also outlines plans to make frozen Iranian funds available and establishes a pathway toward the eventual removal of sanctions, subject to future negotiations.      On the nuclear front, Iran reaffirmed that it will not pursue nuclear weapons and agreed to discussions on the future disposition of its enriched uranium stockpile. The memorandum introduces what US officials described as a “minimum methodology” under which highly enriched material would be down-blended on site under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision, although the precise details remain subject to future negotiations.      Despite the breakthrough, the agreement has already come under pressure from both political opponents and Iranian officials.      Iranian Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rejected Washington’s characterisation of the agreement as a diplomatic victory, describing it instead as a “record of US failure.” More significantly for the maritime sector, Ghalibaf indicated that Iran intends to introduce charges for commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz once the 60-day toll-free period expires.

“The Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions,” Ghalibaf said, adding that Iran would exercise what it views as its sovereign rights and “receive a fee for services.”

Iranian officials have also suggested that future management and maritime services in the strait could be administered jointly by Iran and Oman, potentially creating a new regulatory framework for one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.

The prospect of future transit charges has emerged as one of the most closely watched aspects of the agreement. While the memorandum guarantees free passage during the initial 60-day period, the possibility of a tolling system raises questions about future voyage costs for shipowners, charterers and energy traders relying on Gulf exports.  Political opposition is also growing. Critics in Washington argue that the agreement provides substantial economic relief without addressing Iran’s ballistic missile programme or regional proxy activities, while Israel has reportedly expressed concern over the scale of concessions granted under the framework.      For now, markets have welcomed the deal. Oil prices fell nearly 5% following the announcement as traders anticipated a normalisation of energy exports and shipping activity. However, with negotiations on a permanent settlement only just beginning, the shipping industry remains focused on whether the ceasefire holds, whether demining and security operations proceed as planned, and whether future transit fees become a permanent feature of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Mine-clearing, insurance costs, port congestion and the risk of geopolitical spoilers could all keep barrels moving more slowly than the headline suggests,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets, earlier this week.      INTERTANKO has called for urgent guidance on how vessels will safely transit the Strait of Hormuz following the agreement that formally ends hostilities between the US and Iran.      While welcoming the diplomatic breakthrough, the tanker owners’ association said today shipowners require practical assurances before commercial traffic can return to normal levels.

The organisation outlined what it described as a two-step reopening process, with the immediate priority being the clearance of sea mines from the internationally recognised traffic separation scheme (TSS).       “First and foremost, clearing the main internationally recognised traffic separation scheme of all mine threats must be a priority,” INTERTANKO said.

The association is also seeking greater clarity on alternative northern and southern routes that vessels may need to use while the main TSS is being cleared. It wants mine danger areas published, confirmation that ships will no longer be subject to attack, and the establishment of a command-and-control system to manage traffic through the chokepoint.

INTERTANKO warned that congestion could quickly become a challenge, noting that around 550 ships are waiting to leave the Gulf while roughly 60 vessels a day would normally seek to transit the strait.      Marine director Phillip Belcher said uncertainty remains over future transit arrangements despite provisions in the ceasefire memorandum.      “The final outcome of these discussions must be a reinforcement of the central tenet that the Strait of Hormuz must remain free of charges and open to all in accordance with UNCLOS,” Belcher said.

Managing director Tim Wilkins urged caution despite improving conditions. “Without clarity on these issues, ships will be unsure whether to transit the Strait of Hormuz,” Wilkins said.