Rains
continue to reshape new crop expectations despite El Nino forecast
Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Australian Premium White wheat
at $273/metric ton June 30, down $9/mt since the start of the month June 2,
while Australian Standard White fell $6/mt to $268/mt during the same period. Prices softened throughout much of June as
swathes of the Australian wheat belt received rain since late May, improving
crop prospects across multiple states, according to several Australian trade
sources. Sources
also cited bearish influences from a weaker Australian dollar in June. The
Australian dollar closed the month at 69.19 US cents June 30, down 3.3% from
71.58 cents June 1. There was greater urgency to sell on the
East Coast, where growers had been holding onto old-crop stocks as a hedge
against potentially lower production in the 2026-27 marketing year (October to
September) due to a super El Niño forecast. However, widespread rains have
vastly changed new-crop prospects, at least in the near term, according to
several trade sources in Perth and Victoria. “The season is very positive. The El Niño
is interesting. There is still a lot of media [coverage] around it in
Australia. But the facts are, we keep getting widespread excellent rain. So,
who knows if [or] when it cuts out,” a Victoria-based trade source said.