India taps 65m barrels of Russian crude

Broker and analytics data suggest the licence will immediately reshape flows into India. “Opening access to Russian crude … looks likely to have given India access to ~65m bbls of Russian crude that was previously off limits,” broker Braemar estimated, arguing that figure could compensate Indian refiners for roughly 23 days’ worth of lost Middle East Gulf crude. Braemar’s assessment draws on Vortexa tracking and on‑voyage destination signals: “About 65 million additional bbls of Russian crude already on board tankers could well end up in India over the next few weeks,” the note said, breaking the total into parcels in transit, pre‑March 5 lifts now rerouting, and barrels in floating storage.    

Vortexa‑derived movement patterns underpin the re‑routing thesis: some 8m barrels already in transit have flipped to India as their predicted destination, while 49m barrels lifted before March 5 remain candidate cargoes that could be discharged in India rather than heading east. Around 7.6m barrels sit in floating storage in East Asia.

The first visible sign of that rebalancing arrived in Mumbai on Wednesday when the suezmax Shenlong – carrying an estimated 1m+ barrels and managed by Greece’s Dynacom – berthed to begin offloading. Local port officials said the cargo will be refined in Mumbai over the next two days. The vessel reportedly switched off AIS while transiting the strait but resumed transmissions before arrival; its crew includes Indian, Pakistani and Filipino nationals under an Indian master.     New Delhi has also been pursuing a diplomatic safety valve. Indian media report direct talks between external affairs minister S. Jaishankar and Iran’s Abbas Araghchi have yielded a deal to allow an initial tranche of some 20 crude tankers and LPG carriers safe passage through Hormuz – a potential energy lifeline that few other Gulf‑dependent buyers possess. Iranian officials deny reported assurances in some outlets, reflecting the delicate, confidential nature of the negotiations.

The OFAC licence and rapid re‑routing mean India can blunt the shock of evaporating Gulf supplies by absorbing sanctioned or previously stranded Russian barrels, reshaping short‑term global flows and ton‑mile demand.