ClarkSea Index Surges 61% as Geopolitics Redefines Shipping’s First Half

Geopolitics, not fundamentals, wrote the script for global shipping in the first half of 2026. That is the central takeaway from Clarksons Research’s First Half 2026 Shipping Market Review, which reports the ClarkSea Index, the industry’s benchmark earnings measure, up 61% year-on-year to $38,717/day, a 31% jump over the second half of 2025.   The single biggest force behind that number was the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Clarksons Research data shows transits through the chokepoint, which normally carries around a fifth of global oil supply, fell by 95% from March, triggering what the report calls material operational stress across the maritime economy. Roughly 1,000 internationally trading vessels were reportedly caught inside the Gulf at the peak of the disruption, with knock-on effects from waiting time and repositioning inefficiencies rippling through freight markets worldwide.   Counter-intuitively, the shipping market emerged a net beneficiary. Clarksons attributes this to a combination of replacement volumes routed around the Strait, additional energy exports from alternative sources including the US and sanctions-waivered supply, and a broader shift toward longer-haul voyages between the US and Asia, a shift compounded by ongoing Panama Canal delays. Following the US-Iran agreement reached in late June, traffic through Hormuz has started to recover, though volumes remain below pre-conflict levels even as oil and bunker prices have returned to where they stood before the crisis began.   Nowhere was the disruption dividend felt more sharply than in tankers, which posted their strongest rate environment on record at an average of $82,000/day, notwithstanding some softening through the second quarter. The gas carrier segments told a similar story of volume loss offset by price gains: VLGC day rates touched nearly $200,000/day at their peak and averaged $100,000/day across the half, even as LPG cargo volumes declined. LNG carriers held firm at $77,000/day in spot terms, comfortably above the softer levels seen before the conflict began.          Container shipping felt the disruption differently, more through logistics and tariff-driven frontloading than direct exposure to the Strait, with freight rates climbing to their highest levels outside of the pandemic and mid-2024 spikes, and charter rates edging a further 5% higher. Dry bulk firmed after a slow start to the year, with first-half earnings averaging $17,000/day and Capesize rates briefly topping $40,000/day on the back of strong bauxite and iron ore volumes. Car carriers saw the sharpest swing of any segment, rates up 65% to $70,000/day as Chinese vehicle exports grew 50%, while offshore markets edged up 4% on what the report frames as a longer-term energy security tailwind.   Away from the charter market, owners kept their cheque books open. Newbuild ordering ran 33% ahead of the full-year 2025 pace, led by more than 150 VLCC orders in 2026 so far, the largest annual tally for the segment since 1973, alongside record LPG carrier ordering in the second quarter. Bulker ordering was comparatively restrained, leaving that orderbook at just 14% of the existing fleet against 25% for tankers and 40% for containerships, LNG and LPG carriers.   By mid-year the global orderbook stood at 207 million CGT, worth $657 billion, a record in dollar terms even though tonnage remains 8% below the 2008 peak. The orderbook now represents 21% of the active fleet, more than double its 2020 share of 10%, though still well short of 2008’s 55%. Shipyard output rose 14% year-on-year in CGT terms, with Chinese capacity expanding fastest; Chinese yards accounted for 57% of global deliveries by CGT in the first half. Clarksons expects global output to exceed the previous 2010 peak within the next year. The world fleet and orderbook combined are now valued at $2.4 trillion, even as ship finance markets stay competitive. Secondhand pricing has also moved up, with tanker and bulker asset values rising 26% and 16% respectively since the start of the year, even as sale-and-purchase activity has cooled from a very active first quarter.   The report flags a stalling of consensus on decarbonisation, with regulatory uncertainty and the market’s preoccupation with managing disruption slowing alternative fuel uptake in several segments. One bright spot: Energy Saving Technologies are now fitted on 48% of fleet tonnage, evidence that efficiency retrofits continue even as fuel-switching momentum cools.       Steve Gordon, Managing Director of Clarksons Research, noted that shipping’s exceptionally strong cash position, built up over a long stretch of disruption-driven markets, points to a near-term outlook where further upside from geopolitical volatility cannot be ruled out. At the same time, he cautioned that the combination of an uncertain geopolitical backdrop, expanding shipyard capacity, and an ageing global fleet is making longer-term forecasting increasingly difficult.