A draft bill before Iran’s parliament would prohibit vessels belonging to the US, Israel and other countries Tehran considers hostile from using the strait and wider Persian Gulf.   It would also block military and civilian cargoes linked to Israel and potentially prevent countries or individuals accused of damaging Iran from transiting until compensation had been paid. Violations could attract fines of up to 20% of the value of a vessel’s cargo.   The proposals added another complication to negotiations between Iran and Oman over reopening Hormuz to commercial traffic.   Iranian reports suggested the two countries were working towards a centrally managed corridor under which Tehran would oversee vessels entering the Gulf, while outbound traffic would be jointly managed by Iran and Oman.   Existing northern and southern temporary routes would initially remain open before being phased out.    Iran has also pushed for ships to pay for services including insurance, bunkering, environmental protection and security, although Tehran rejected reports that it was demanding tolls calculated as a percentage of cargo value.   Washington has made clear that compulsory payments or Iranian approval for transit would be unacceptable.      Eight of shipping’s largest international associations have also intervened, writing jointly this week to UN secretary-general AntónioGuterres and IMO secretary-general Arsenio Dominguez. “Once such a precedent is established, it becomes increasingly difficult to resist similar measures elsewhere,” the groups warned.

The potential ban on US and Israeli vessels may have limited direct commercial impact because relatively few ships fly either flag. More difficult would be determining what constitutes an American- or Israeli-linked vessel given the complicated ownership, financing and management structures.

Tehran has insisted that a complete reopening must be accompanied by the lifting of the US maritime blockade and has linked broader maritime normalisation to sanctions relief.   With the US midterm elections less than three months away on November 3, the Iran war is becoming an increasingly damaging political liability for president Donald Trump — a vulnerability Tehran has every incentive to exploit by prolonging the conflict.

Meanwhile, the attempt to throttle Iranian crude exports is proving impossible to police as witnessed this week in Southeast Asia where eight sanctioned Iranian-linked tankers carrying more than 8.5m barrels of crude have converged off Malaysia, with maritime intelligence analysts assessing that a coordinated series of ship-to-ship transfers is being prepared.

Windward identified the eight OFAC-designated, Iranian state-linked tankers around Malaysia’s Eastern Outer Port Limits, a well-established hub for transferring sanctioned crude ultimately destined for China.   The vessels are carrying a combined 8.56m barrels loaded at Iran’s Kharg Island. Seven of the eight had switched off their AIS transmissions by late July or early August, according to Windward, which said the concentration of vessels was consistent with a planned transfer operation rather than individual attempts to avoid detection.   “Extended, repeated dark periods across all eight vessels point to a coordinated, sanctions-evading transfer network rather than a single opportunistic transit,” Windward assessed.   United Against Nuclear Iran reported earlier this week that at least 52 tankers on its Ghost Armada list were anchored or loitering around the same Malaysian transfer zone with AIS switched on.