Maersk goes from red to black

Only months ago, the Danish shipping giant warned investors it could post an underlying EBIT loss of as much as $1.5bn this year. Now, after a sustained surge in freight rates and stronger-than-expected cargo demand, Maersk expects to deliver an underlying operating profit of between $2bn and $4bn. Underlying EBITDA guidance has been lifted to $8bn-$10bn from a previous range of $4.5bn-$7bn, while the company’s outlook for global container demand has been raised to around 4% growth this year from an earlier forecast of 2% to 4%.   The speed of the turnaround underlines how quickly fortunes can change in container shipping.   Far from sliding into the prolonged downturn many expected as a record orderbook entered service, the market has instead tightened once again as demand has outpaced effective fleet growth.

Industry data suggests Maersk is far from alone. Linerlytica estimates global teu-mile demand is currently expanding by 7.3%, comfortably ahead of fleet supply growth of 5.4%, producing the widest demand-supply gap since late 2024. Congestion has also returned with force, with almost 11% of the world’s containership fleet currently waiting outside ports, the highest level since 2022. These factors have pushed both freight and charter markets sharply higher.   Spot freight rates reflect the improvement. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index has climbed above 3,200 points, more than double pre-conflict levels according to HSBC, while rates on both Asia-Europe and transpacific trades continue to rise. Xeneta expects network disruption linked to the Gulf crisis to persist into September even under an optimistic scenario, suggesting freight rates could remain firm for several more weeks.      The market remains an unusual combination of strength and caution.      On paper, supply should be overwhelming demand. The containership orderbook stands at roughly 12m teu, equivalent to more than one-third of the existing fleet, with deliveries expected to peak next year. Under normal circumstances, that volume of new tonnage would place severe downward pressure on freight markets.

Instead, effective capacity continues to be absorbed by longer voyage distances, congestion, tactical capacity management and periodic geopolitical disruption. The Red Sea crisis continues to reshape global networks, while recent tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have added fresh uncertainty to vessel deployment and scheduling.   Even so, few analysts believe today’s buoyant conditions will last indefinitely.      The consensus remains that the current strength represents another disruption-driven phase rather than the start of a new supercycle. As more newbuildings enter service over the next two years and geopolitical bottlenecks gradually ease, freight markets are expected to normalise. For now, however, Maersk’s guidance upgrade sends a clear message. Predictions earlier this year that 2026 would be dominated by oversupply have given way to a very different reality.

 Once again, container shipping has demonstrated its remarkable ability to defy conventional market logic, turning what looked like a year of losses into another period of substantial profitability.