In an
exclusive interview, Kristalina Georgieva said global economic shocks had been
“pushing debt levels up like a staircase not to heaven” but that governments
had taken “no action to contain that service cost”. “[It’s] time to take that action,” she
said, adding that “courage” was needed by politicians to take the necessary
steps. The intervention comes as
government borrowing costs have surged in response to wars disrupting the
supply of oil, which has fuelled inflation.
Higher global borrowing costs have hit the UK government in the run-up
to UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s first Budget next month, with speculation
building over potential tax and spending policies. The latest figures show borrowing – the
difference between tax receipts and government spending – was £18.3bn ($24.4bn)
in August, almost a fifth higher than the year before and higher than official
forecasts. Meanwhile, debt interest
was the highest figure for August since monthly records began in 1997. Higher borrowing costs have also hit the
US, the world’s largest economy, which has seen its debt pile surpass $40tn.
The amount has doubled within the space of a decade, prompting concerns at home
and abroad. On the sidelines of the
United Nations General Assembly, Georgieva said the IMF’s message to advanced
economies was that while there were economic factors occurring outside the
control of governments, they did have command over domestic policies. “There are these two things that must be
done: bring debt levels down, put fiscal consolidation as a priority, and make
sure that the central banks deliver on their mandate for price stability,” she
said. “It is impossible to stress
strongly enough how critical it is to get the courage to take the steps that
are necessary. These are politically tough steps to take, but necessary steps
to take.” Asked specifically about the
UK’s higher interest costs compared to other major economies, Georgieva said
its position was “not very different” from others. She pointed to “fairly consistent action”
on lowering debt and praised planning and housing reforms, adding that advanced
economies “don’t have the cash” to boost growth and so had to rely on reforms
to encourage the private sector to invest.
AI could present ‘financial stability risk’ Governments around the world raise money
by selling bonds – essentially an IOU – and in return pay interest to the
investment funds that buy them.
Concerns over inflation eating away at returns has sent the interest
rates on bonds – known as yields – higher in recent months. But there are other factors pushing yields
up, including increasing competition in the bond market from large tech
companies looking to raise huge amounts of money to invest in artificial
intelligence (AI) development. On AI,
Georgieva referenced recent concerns about loss of safe control over such
systems as a potential financial stability problem, alongside debt levels. “If we see more incidents when AI takes [on
a] life of its own, then we can be faced with a significant financial stability
risk,” she said. The IMF’s managing
director repeated the influential body’s assessment that the global economy was
affected by two forces “pushing in opposite directions” – the energy price
shock and investment in AI. She said
it was important for the low exports of oil and gas from the Gulf “to resume in
a durable manner, for the energy supply shock to finally be in the rearview
mirror”. “That is a very significant
step to normalisation,” she said, but acknowledged it was yet to happen.