The Iran conflict has
sent tanker rates soaring, forcing sellers to deepen discounts on heavy crude
grades and giving US Gulf Coast refiners a cost advantage over Asian rivals,
executives said after reporting bumper third-quarter profits. Security threats around the Strait of
Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint through which about one-fifth of global oil
and liquefied natural gas supplies passed before the war started, have
disrupted tanker traffic, while higher war-risk insurance premiums and longer
voyages have driven up shipping costs.
The disruption particularly benefited US Gulf Coast refiners, which
could buy discounted heavy crude produced closer to home, including from Canada
and Venezuela, while Asian rivals faced sharply higher freight and insurance
costs to import similar grades through longer and riskier shipping routes. US refining margins more than doubled in
the third quarter. Rising freight
costs have widened discounts on Canadian heavy crude, including Western
Canadian Select (WCS), which typically trades below US benchmark West Texas
Intermediate (WTI), creating a windfall for Gulf Coast refiners, as more than
70 per cent of their facilities are configured to process heavier crude. "The main story right now in the
market is freight rates," Randy Hawkins, vice president of crude and
feedstocks supply and trading at Valero Energy, said on a post-earnings
conference call. Freight costs for
shipping crude from the US Gulf Coast to Asia have jumped to $30-$35 a barrel
from about $5 a year earlier, Hawkins said.
"Higher freight rates actually give us an advantage into the
typical export markets into Latin America," said Gary Simmons, chief
operating officer of Valero, adding that it mainly competes with European
barrels in that market. Ample heavy
crude supplies from Canada and Venezuela, combined with elevated freight rates,
have widened the WTI-WCS differential, lowering feedstock costs, US refining
executives said. For Phillips 66,
every $1 widening in the WCS-WTI differential is worth about $140 million in
gains, Brian Mandell, executive vice president of marketing and commercial,
said. Higher shipping costs have also
been more than offset by stronger fuel margins, said Delia He, an oil and
tanker market analyst at Arrow Shipping.
"For every extra dollar of freight, the diesel margin has grown by
at least eight," He said. US
refiners have also been shielded from the impacts of higher spot tanker rates
following the war due to their advance shipping arrangements. Phillips 66 said it had secured more than
40 time-charter vessels before the Iran conflict, covering about 40 per cent of
its asset-based shipping needs.
Valero, PBF, Marathon and Canada's Suncor also secured chartered fleets
before the war began, insulating them from the surge in prices. Wider differentials are expected to
continue to lend strength next year as well, some industry executives
said. Top US refiner Marathon
Petroleum expects record Canadian heavy crude processing in the fourth quarter,
while CEO Maryann Mannen has said that margins are expected to remain elevated
through at least mid-2027.
"In the near term
we will take advantage of it," HF Sinclair said of the wider discounts,
adding, "we do see the differentials stay wider than they have throughout
the near term, at least through 2027."