Container ship transits through the Suez Canal have exceeded 50% of pre-disruption levels for the first time since Houthi attacks began in the Red Sea, signalling a gradual return to normal shipping routes, according to BIMCO.    During the first two weeks of October 2026, weekly container ship capacity transiting the canal averaged 753,000 TEU, compared with 1.457 million TEU during the corresponding period in 2023, according to Clarksons Research.    “Since the Houthi attacks began in the Red Sea, this is the first time that transits have exceeded 50% of pre-disruption levels,” said Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.    The disruption began in November 2023, when the Houthis announced plans to target Israeli ships in the Red Sea in response to Israeli attacks in Gaza. The criteria were subsequently broadened to include other vessels, creating uncertainty across global shipping markets.    In response, container shipping lines began diverting vessels away from the Suez Canal and the Red Sea in December 2023, opting instead to sail around the Cape of Good Hope. By the final week of 2023, weekly container ship capacity transiting the canal had plunged to 330,000 TEU, against a year-to-date weekly average of 1.29 million TEU.    Between early February 2024 and mid-2026, weekly container ship capacity through the Suez Canal averaged just 141,000 TEU, equivalent to approximately 11% of the capacity recorded during the corresponding weeks of 2023.    The recovery has gathered momentum since the Gemini Alliance, comprising Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, announced on 6 July 2026 that its AE15/SE3 Asia–Mediterranean service would return to the Suez Canal.    The alliance has since announced the return of five additional services to their normal routes, including its remaining three Asia–Mediterranean services. Members of the Ocean Alliance and Premier Alliance, along with MSC, have also announced routing changes.    In total, changes involving 16 services have been announced since early July, reflecting growing confidence in the resumption of Suez Canal transits.    During the first two weeks of October, 36% of total container ship capacity routed through either the Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope passed through the canal. This compares with an average of just 8% between 2024 and mid-2026.    However, the figure remains well below the 80% share recorded before the attacks began, indicating that a full return to pre-disruption routing patterns is still some distance away.    The initial recovery in Suez Canal traffic was driven largely by southbound sailings. During the third quarter of 2026, northbound capacity through the canal stood at just 75% of southbound capacity. This ratio increased to 81% during the first weeks of October, indicating a gradual improvement in traffic flows in both directions.    The shift back to the shorter Suez Canal route is also expected to reduce the additional vessel capacity absorbed by longer voyages around Africa.    BIMCO estimates that rerouting away from the Suez Canal increased global container ship demand by approximately 10%, as vessels spent more time completing voyages via the Cape of Good Hope.    “That increase is now reducing quickly. However, as the return to the Suez Canal has coincided with increased port congestion in Asia, the full effect on supply/demand has yet to be seen,” Rasmussen said.   

The accelerating return to Suez Canal routes could release effective shipping capacity and influence freight market conditions. However, the extent of any impact on global container shipping supply and demand will depend on the pace of route normalisation and the continuing effects of congestion at Asian ports.