Ship Recycling Taking a Hit from Geopolitical Tensions, But Sentiment Improved Last Week

While the stronger dollar continues to place pressure on recyclers, the local market, which was expected to improve over the past two weeks, has finally picked up in a healthy manner. Accordingly, price levels for this week have been increased by about USD 8–10, and the market is expected to strengthen further in the coming week. On the regulatory side, the Gujarat Maritime Board (GMB) has directed Alang ship recycling yard plot allottees to pay 50% of the annual fixed plot charges on a pro-rata basis up to 18 July 2026, while the association continues its efforts to secure relief on the remaining charges and an interest-free extension until 30 April for payment of the balance”.

Best Oasis added that the Bangladeshi market remains buoyant, with aggressive buying interest seen for vessels in the 10,000–15,000 LWT range. Sentiment has also improved on the back of a more supportive political environment, as the new government is seen as business-friendly, and this has given buyers more confidence for fresh acquisitions. Another key factor supporting the market is the limited availability of HMS 1 and 2 from the US and other origins. With local scrap prices in Bangladesh remaining strong, there is less incentive to import material, which has further supported sentiment and pushed the market higher.

The Pakistan ship recycling market has shown improved activity this week, mainly due to tightening scrap availability. Scrap imports from the Middle East have remained suspended over the past four weeks, which has supported the recent rise in market activity. In addition, the flow of material through the Iran land border has also stopped, further adding to supply pressure. As a result, vessel prices in the region have moved up, although the increase is largely shortage-driven. Finally, the Turkish market recorded an increase of about USD 4 on imports and around USD 5 on local prices this week. So far, this has not translated into any noticeable change in vessel prices or recycling activity. Overall market conditions remain largely unchanged from the previous week. The coming week will show whether the recent rise in prices begins to influence vessel pricing and activity”, Best Oasis concluded.     

Meanwhile, in a separate report, shipbroker Intermodal noted that “disruptions to steel and energy flows and geopolitical concerns coupled with a constrained supply of candidates, shaped conditions across ship recycling markets last week. In India, sentiment improved despite subdued activity, supported by a strengthening Rupee against the US Dollar following a series of Reserve Bank of India interventions. The currency appreciation adds purchasing power for ship recyclers, who acquire candidates in US Dollars while selling recycled steel in Rupees.

 Headwinds nonetheless persist. The inflow of recycling candidates remains insufficient, partly attributable to resilient freight markets underpinned by geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Compounding this, cylinder-based LPG shortages continue to constrain normal operations across shipyards and steel mills, with pipeline gas flows offering partial relief. The ship recycling sector in Chattogram continues to demonstrate resilience amid geopolitical headwinds and energy supply disruptions, maintaining a healthy overall condition. However, the positive momentum is being tempered by a constrained volume of candidates, alongside reported difficulties faced by shipyards in securing fuel for operations. The local steel market is exhibiting strength, with prices moving higher.      This upward move appears to be predominantly supply-driven, underpinned by reduced raw material availability, due to limited output from ship dismantling activity and constrained steel imports from the US. In Pakistan the market saw an uptick in activity comparing to previous week. The circulation of some dry bulk candidates has spurred interest, with ship recyclers firming offers to be more competitive. The steel market faces a cautious sentiment, with constrained supply conditions leading to higher prices. Supply remains the critical variable in assessing the market’s outlook. While fundamentals have improved, a more sustained recovery will depend on owners moving to commit vessels for dismantling at prevailing price levels. Turkey’s segment held steady last week, however, rising energy costs, are weighing on yard economics at Aliaga”, Intermodal concluded.