“We’re in ‘stop the press’ territory now with VLCC rates galloping in all areas in tandem with the Suez- and Aframax segments,” was how Norwegian broker Fearnleys opened its latest tanker commentary.   The Atlantic has been particularly explosive. A Brazil-China cargo was fixed Wednesday at WS197.5, according to Fearnleys, shortly after another fixture at WS182.5. The broker also cited an unconfirmed West Africa-East deal at WS210, while Fujairah/Oman-East cargoes are testing WS200 and above.     Fresh US Gulf business reinforces the picture. A VLCC linked to major Greek interests went on subjects Wednesday at around $24.8m lump sum for the US Gulf-China run, equating to roughly $260,000 a day, according to Tankers International. That followed a Sinokor ship going on subjects Tuesday at around $22.2m, or $252,000 a day.

Shipping analysts at SEB, a Scandinavian bank, noted that the physical market is moving dramatically ahead of published assessments. The Baltic was assessing US Gulf-China at only around $146,000 a day on Wednesday, leaving a gap of more than $100,000 a day between the benchmark and levels at which owners are actually putting ships on subjects.

The bank argued that if the latest fixtures confirm, tanker assessments and consensus fourth-quarter earnings forecasts look too low, providing further potential upside for tanker equities.   Behind the Atlantic spike is China. Higher crude imports are pulling vessels onto long-haul voyages at the same time that the effective VLCC fleet available elsewhere is being constrained by the extraordinary conditions around Hormuz.      Inside the Gulf, returns remain even more spectacular. Middle East-China earnings reached around $510,000 a day earlier this week, according to Baltic Exchange data, while individual owners willing to accept the security risk have achieved returns approaching $550,000 a day.     The Hormuz crisis is also changing the strategic value of tanker ownership.

Modern VLCC prices have pushed above $130m as Gulf producers seek greater control over the ships needed to keep exports flowing. ADNOC Logistics & Services has just spent $1.3bn buying six VLCCs and five VLGCs, nine of them secondhand vessels acquired for rapid deployment.

The market is being amplified by a shrinking pool of straightforward trading tonnage. Hundreds of tankers are concentrated around the Gulf, with many ships operating without transmitting AIS and a declining share of Hormuz transits associated with transparent mainstream owners. That leaves owners with ships in the right place holding enormous negotiating power.      Fearnleys reckons position lists are thinning “by the hour” both east and west of Suez, warning that a fixture regarded as expensive today could quickly look cheap.     The broker signed off its assessment with an appropriately maritime flourish: “Time and tide wait for no man.”