China’s CPI
inflation fell to 0.7% year-on-year, down from 0.9% and slightly below
expectations (market: 0.8%, ING: 0.8%). This brings the year-to-date inflation
to 0.9% YoY. Food was the main drag
on inflation, with prices falling to a 13-month low of -2.9% YoY. The main
culprits were fresh vegetables (-16.9%), pork (-8.6%), and fresh fruit (-3.8%)
prices. The drag from pork prices has eased in recent months, but a sharp
sequential decline in vegetable prices has largely offset it. By comparison, non-food inflation was
unchanged at 1.5% YoY on the month. We continue to see a strong boost from
transportation fuels (20.2%) amid higher oil prices, and communication
appliances (16.1%) due to more expensive tech components. Other categories such
as healthcare (2.4%), Education, Culture, and Entertainment (1.5%), and
clothing (1.1%) generally saw modest positive inflation. Cutting through the noise, core
inflation of 0.8% YoY edged down to a 9-month low, but it has stayed within a
relatively narrow range of 0.8-1.2% year to date. PPI inflation rose to 5.7% YoY in October,
extending its climb to fresh cycle highs, as we saw an outsized boost from mining
and excavation (27.9%) and raw material (11.6%) prices. By industry, coal
mining (36.6%) and oil and gas extraction (35.0%) saw the biggest boosts. If
higher producer prices hold, these costs should be passed on to consumers. We
think inflation will remain low but positive heading into 2027.