Trump and Iran remarks spark surge in oil prices

Oil prices gained more than three per cent on Friday, (15 May) climbing over $3 a barrel after comments from US President Donald Trump and Iran's foreign minister further dented hopes of a deal to end ship attacks and seizures around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures gained $3.24, or 3.06 per cent, to $108.96 a barrel by 10:49 CDT (15:49 GMT). US West Texas Intermediate futures were up $4.13, or 4.08 per cent, at $105.03.

Over the week, Brent has climbed 7.54 per cent and WTI 9.7 per cent on uncertainty over the shaky ceasefire in the Iran conflict.  "The tone between the US and Iran has once again become significantly more confrontational. While the ceasefire holds, hopes for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have faded," Commerzbank analysts said.

Iran has "no trust" in the US and is only interested in negotiating with Washington if it is serious, foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday, adding that Iran is prepared to go back to fighting but also prepared for diplomatic solutions.

Trump said he was running out of patience with Iran and that he had agreed with Chinese President Xi Jinping that Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon and must reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  President Xi did not comment on his discussions with Trump about Iran, though China's foreign ministry issued a statement. "This conflict, which should never have happened, has no reason to continue," the ministry said.   Among deals the market was looking for from the US-China summit, Trump said China wants to buy oil from the United States. Trump also said he could lift sanctions on Chinese companies that buy Iranian oil.

"Market focus is back on the deadlock and a blockaded Strait of Hormuz, with a tail risk of renewed military escalation," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said that 30 vessels had crossed the Strait of Hormuz between Wednesday evening and Thursday, still far short of the 140 a day that was typical before the war, but a substantial increase if confirmed.

"An increasing number of vessels are filtering through the strait...although currently this has a more tangible impact on sentiment than on the actual oil balance," said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.   The strait's closure comes at a time when reserves are running thin.

"The world has consumed its oil safety net at a historic rate," Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group, said in a note.

"While strategic releases and demand reduction have prevented immediate chaos, the margin for error is shrinking rapidly. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz points toward tighter physical markets, potential refined product shortages, and upward pressure on prices in the coming weeks and months."

Shipping analytics firm Kpler said on Thursday that 10 ships had sailed through the strait in the past 24 hours, compared with the five to seven that have crossed daily in recent weeks.      "Crude is trading higher on a combination of the Trump-Xi meeting doing little to bring us closer to a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries," said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.