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Brazil’s Iron Ore Exports Slowing Down in 2026

Brazil’s Iron Ore Exports Slowing Down in 2026

Brazil’s iron ore exports have been slowing down so far in the year. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Banchero Costa said that “1H 2026 was another positive period for global seaborne iron ore trade. In Jan-Jun 2026, global loadings of iron ore increased by +1.9% y-o-y to 836.7 mln t, based on AXS Marine vessel tracking data. This builds on the +3.5% y-o-y growth recorded in full year 2025. Exports from Australia increased in Jan-Jun 2026 by +2.6% y-o-y to 472.1 mln tonnes. From Brazil, exports rose by +1.4% y-o-y in Jan-Jun 2026 to 182.0 mln t. From Canada, there was a -14.0% yo-y decrease to 25.2 mln tonnes. From South Africa, volumes increased +0.6% y-o-y to 26.6 mln t. From India, increased +4.2% y-o-y in Jan-Jun 2026 to 15.3 mln t. Iron ore import demand remains robust in China. Iron ore imports into China increased by +6.1% y-o-y in Jan-Jun 2026 to 638.4 mln t. Imports into Japan declined by -5.8% y-o-y to 45.1 mln t. To the EU, imports decreased by -6.6% y-oy to 33.3 mln t. Volumes into South Korea were broadly flat, down -0.3% y-o-y to 36.1 mln t. Imports into Malaysia increased by +2.6% y-o-y to 12.4 mln tonnes. To Vietnam increased by +17.1% y-o-y to 14.0 mln t. To Oman, volumes were down -21.4% y-o-y to 5.2 mln t, to Saudi Arabia by -56.5% y-o-y to 2.3 mln t, to Bahrain -70.2% y-o-y to 1.8 mln t”.

According to Banchero Costa, “Brazil is currently the second largest exporter of iron ore in the world, after Australia. In Jan-Dec 2025, Brazil accounted for 23.0% of global iron ore shipments, after Australia’s 55.0%. Canada was third with a 3.7% share, followed by South Africa in fourth place with 3.1% and India with 1.6%. In Jan-Jun 2026, Brazil’s share eased to 21.8%, against Australia’s 56.4%, with South Africa moving up to third at 3.2%, ahead of Canada at 3.0%. In Jan-Dec 2025, iron ore exports from Brazil increased by +5.9% y-o-y to 398.3 mln t. In Jan-Jun 2026, growth slowed markedly, with volumes up just +1.4% y-o-y to 182.0 mln t. After a soft start to the year (28.6 mln t in Jan 2026, down from 37.8 mln t in Dec 2025), Brazil’s exports recovered through the half, reaching 36.1 mln t in Jun 2026, up from 33.2 mln t in May 2026 and the strongest month of 2026 so far”. 

The shipbroker added that “about 50% of exports from Brazil in Jan-Jun 2026 were loaded on VLOCs (including Valemaxes), about 46% was loaded on Capesize tonnage, about 3% on Panamaxes, about 1% on Post-Panamaxes and less than 1% on Supramaxes. Looking at major loading ports for iron ore in Brazil in Jan-Jun 2026, we have: Ponta da Madeira (69.4 mln tonnes), Tubarao (39.1 mln t), Sepetiba/Itaguai (38.2 mln t), Guaiba (15.6 mln t), Acu (12.8 mln t), Ponta Ubu (6.7 mln t). Mainland China is still by far the top destination for Brazilian iron ore, accounting for 72.8% of Brazil’s exports in Jan-Dec 2025 and 71.5% in Jan-Jun 2026. Shipments to China increased by +7.1% y-o-y to 289.8 mln t in JanDec 2025, and by a further +1.9% yo-y to 130.1 mln t in Jan-Jun 2026. Volumes to Malaysia (which is mostly for transhipment to other Asian destinations) increased by +2.8% y-o-y in Jan-Dec 2025 to 19.7 mln tonnes, and by +8.8% y-o-y in Jan-Jun 2026 to 10.6 mln t. Exports from Brazil to the EU declined by -23.1% y-o-y to 13.0 mln tonnes in Jan-Dec 2025, and fell a further -21.4% y-o-y to 5.8 mln tonnes in Jan-Jun 2026. Shipments from Brazil to Oman dipped by -9.9% y-o-y to 11.2 mln t in Jan-Dec 2025 and collapsed by -59.9% y-o-y to 2.4 mln t in Jan-Jun 2026, to Bahrain declined by -10.3% y-o-y to 9.1 mln t in 2025 and by -67.8% y-o-y to 1.5 mln t in Jan-Jun 2026 To Egypt shipments declined by -16.2% y-o-y to 3.9 mln t in 2025 but rebounded by +77.7% y-o-y to 2.9 mln t in Jan-Jun 2026, whilst those to Turkey increased by +28.1% y-o-y to 5.5 mln t in 2025 and by a further +26.8% y-o-y to 3.4 mln t in Jan-Jun 2026”, the shipbroker concluded. 

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