One year later, the data suggests that this trend is not merely a short-term adjustment but a deeper transformation in the country’s iron ore trade balance. This shift is becoming increasingly important as the Indian Government’s National Steel Policy targets crude steel production of 255 million tonnes by 2030–31; the country’s rapidly expanding steel sector is expected to strain domestic iron ore availability, potentially strengthening the role of imports in meeting incremental demand.   In 2025, we noted that India’s iron ore imports had increased more than 100% YoY in 1H25, while exports declined 40% during the same period, driven by strong growth in steel production, competitive international ore prices and increasing domestic consumption of iron ore fines. The trend has since continued.       India’s crude steel production increased from close to 100 million tonnes in 2020 to more than 160 million tonnes in 2025, representing a CAGR of around 10%, further strengthening the country’s position as the world’s second-largest steel producer. The next phase of expansion is guided by the government’s National Steel Policy (NSP), which has set targets for crude steel capacity at 300 million tonnes and crude steel production at 255 million tonnes by 2030–31, expecting a CAGR of around 8%.     However, the challenge is to ensure sufficient availability of raw materials. While India’s iron ore production has grown significantly, increasing around 9% annually in the same period, the country’s steel production has expanded slightly faster, gradually tightening the domestic iron ore balance.      At the same time, the country’s iron ore trade pattern changed fundamentally, from exporting large quantities of iron ore fines because domestic steelmakers had limited capacity to consume them to greater domestic use due to investments in beneficiation, pelletisation and sintering. As a result, more iron ore is now being retained within the country.   In number terms, the country’s iron ore exports declined from 52 million tonnes in 2020 to 27 million tonnes in 2025, despite record domestic production, while imports increased to 12.1 million tonnes in 2025, indicating that imported ore is becoming an essential strategy.      The implications extend beyond India’s steel sector. As domestic consumption absorbs more locally produced ore and imports become increasingly important, the country is likely to emerge as a more significant source of incremental seaborne iron ore demand. Longer-haul supply from Brazil (which accounts for the largest share of India’s iron ore imports) could support additional Capesize employment and tonne-mile growth.         India’s iron ore market is undergoing a structural transition, with rising steel production boosting domestic fines use and declining exports reshaping its trade balance. As the country moves towards its 2030–31 steel targets, imported ore is expected to play a larger role in supporting the incremental domestic demand. For the dry bulk market, this shift could translate into sustained seaborne iron ore flows, reinforcing India’s growing importance as a destination for Capesize trade.