Conflict in the Middle East, which supplied 80 percent of India’s ammonia imports in 2025, disrupted regional supply earlier this year. The resulting shortage pushed CFR prices on both India’s East Coast and West Coast to a record high of 885 dollars per tonne in April, as buyers scrambled for alternative cargoes amid tight availability.      By August, prices on both Indian coasts had slid to around the 500 dollar per tonne level, with West Coast India alone dropping nearly 5 percent in a single day on August 13. The retreat marks a sharp reversal from a supply driven rally into what is now a demand driven decline across the region.

Indian buyers are struggling to secure sulfur, a key raw material for phosphate fertiliser production, which has curbed downstream ammonia demand even as import availability has improved. This demand weakness in India is spilling over into other East of Suez markets, keeping regional prices under sustained pressure.   Market watchers are weighing whether a recovery in Indian buying interest can stabilise prices, or whether continued weak demand will extend the downward pressure across the East of Suez region in the months ahead. The sulfur scramble affecting phosphate fertiliser output remains a key swing factor for the ammonia market’s near-term direction.