Provisional Kpler data shows regional crude exports exceeded pre-war volumes on four days during the final week of September, reaching between 19.5m and 22.5m barrels per day. The seven-day moving average stood at 18.5m barrels per day on October 1, compared with an average of around 18m barrels per day in the year before the war.    The numbers cover Hormuz and Red Sea movements as well as terminal exports and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. LNG cargoes exiting Hormuz also rose in September to their highest monthly level since February.    The recovery is providing a powerful cargo base for tanker markets, although brokers caution that improving logistics could eventually erode some of the extraordinary inefficiencies that have propelled rates.    “For dirty tankers, higher Gulf crude exports and the return of Yanbu provide firm underlying cargo demand,” Sentosa Shipbrokers noted, adding that more efficient logistics could gradually reduce STS activity and unwind part of the “exceptional inefficiency premium” supporting VLCC earnings.    Iraq, meanwhile, is taking more control of getting its barrels through the war zone. Iraqi Oil Tankers Company has transported a 2m-barrel cargo through Hormuz on a chartered VLCC, taking responsibility for the crude beyond the strait rather than selling it on the traditional free-on-board basis at Basra. IOTC is now in talks to acquire its own crude tankers as Baghdad looks to rebuild a national deepsea fleet decimated by decades of war and sanctions.    The surge in cargoes transiting Hormuz is being matched, however, by an equally sharp escalation in attacks. At least seven tanker incidents were reported around Hormuz during the opening days of October, with UKMTO issuing almost daily warnings.    Among the latest casualties is one of the newest tankers in the global fleet. The 115,100 dwt Lipsi, operated by Greece’s Dynacom Tankers Management, was hit by an unknown projectile in Hormuz on Sunday, suffering engine-room damage. All crew were reported safe. The LR2 had been delivered from China’s Shanhaiguan Shipbuilding on August 24, just six weeks before the attack, and appears to have been on its maiden trading programme.    Other recent strikes have caused fires, blackouts and loss of propulsion aboard tankers transiting the strait.   

The widening security threat is not confined to Hormuz. Off Yemen, the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker Chrystal Sky reported several explosions around 60 nautical miles south of Al Mukha on Sunday. One explosion occurred in the air around 100 m off the vessel’s starboard side. UKMTO said the crew was safe, with no environmental impact reported, while the tanker continued its voyage.