Tankers remain the principal engine, but what makes the current market increasingly remarkable is how many other shipping sectors are simultaneously running at, or close to, historically exceptional levels.    Average VLCC earnings climbed another 10% this past week to around $660,000 a day, while suezmax earnings surged 72% to a record $630,000. Clean MR earnings rose 30% to $64,000, double levels at the start of September.    VLGCs chalked up another record too, with US Gulf-Japan earnings nearing $194,000 a day, while one-year charter rates for a 6,500 ceu car carrier have hit $95,000, the highest level outside the 2022-24 boom.    Bulker earnings eased during China’s Golden Week but remain firm at a weighted $23,062 a day. Containership charter rates are holding at elevated levels amid scarce availability, while even LNG spot rates showed some improvement in Clarksons’ assessment, with modern two-stroke tonnage at $42,250 a day.    The latest surge caps a record quarter. Clarksons calculated that the ClarkSea Index averaged $46,384 a day during Q3, beating the previous quarterly record of $44,222 set in the second quarter of 2008 and reaching around twice its 10-year trend.    The defining feature of the present boom remains disruption. Clarksons estimates crude flows through Hormuz have recovered to around 12m barrels per day from below 2m at their Q2 low. But the logistics bear little resemblance to normal trading. A shuttle fleet is moving oil from inside the Middle East Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, where cargoes are transferred ship-to-ship onto other tankers for onward delivery to Asia. Flows from Yanbu have also been rearranged, while Brazilian crude is travelling increasingly long distances.    Veson Nautical sees the same inefficiency dividend heading into the fourth quarter. It argued in a new report that ship-to-ship operations, Suez diversions and longer Atlantic voyages are tying up tanker capacity faster than the loss of Middle Eastern barrels is reducing cargo demand. Veson does not expect full restoration of Middle East oil flows before at least mid-2027.     The risk is that today’s freight bonanza is triggering an enormous supply response. Veson counts 198 VLCCs ordered so far this year, compared with 89 in the whole of 2025, taking the VLCC orderbook-to-fleet ratio to 37%. Five-year-old VLCC values are up 70% this year.     Clarksons’ numbers are even more eye-catching on asset values, assessing a five-year-old VLCC at $215m against $131m for a newbuilding, while a 15-year-old vessel is now valued at $160m.    The same supply question hangs over other booming sectors. Veson forecasts bulker demand growing around 2.6% annually through 2029 against fleet supply growth of 3.8%, albeit with Simandou providing important long-haul tonne-mile support.    Containers face a larger imbalance. The orderbook has topped 14m teu, with net fleet growth forecast to average 10.9% annually between 2026 and 2029 against teu-mile demand growth of around 4.1%. Veson consequently forecasts freight rates declining by roughly 32% over the period.    The freight market is, however, starting to turn. Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said transpacific spot rates edged higher again on October 1 but believes the post-Hormuz peak has now been reached. Far East-US west coast rates remain 344% above their February 28 level, while east coast rates are up 335%.    “Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse,” Sand said, forecasting elevated freight costs through the remainder of the year. Xeneta puts current Far East-US west coast spot rates at $8,346 per feu and east coast rates at $11,523.     Dry bulk asset markets are displaying their own signs of exuberance. MB Shipbrokers assesses kamsarmax resales at $41m against $38m for a newbuilding, while a prompt newcastlemax resale is worth $92m compared with $78m for a new order.    Across shipping, the ordering response is becoming enormous. Clarksons says 71m cgt has been contracted this year, running in line with the record-breaking pace of 2007. The global orderbook has reached an all-time high of 226m cgt, up 25% year on year. Shipyard output could hit new records of 64m cgt in 2027 and 69m cgt in 2028, with global fleet growth accelerating towards 6% annually.     There is another ceiling beginning to emerge: what charterers can afford. Poten & Partners calculates that moving Middle Eastern crude to Asia by VLCC cost just $1.73 per barrel in January, around 3% of the delivered crude price. At today’s extraordinary tanker rates, it puts freight at almost $33 per barrel, equivalent to 27% of the delivered cost. That is beginning to influence which crude refiners buy and could ultimately force some to cut runs if margins disappear. Poten’s conclusion is that tanker rates should remain strong while crude demand exceeds supply; once the oil market loosens, however, the freight market could cool rapidly.    Clarksons comes to a similar crossroads. Its short-term outlook remains “very strong”, dominated by the exceptional crude tanker market and Middle East disruption. Longer term, however, calculating how much shipping the world will require is becoming increasingly “tricky” as geopolitics collides with rapidly accelerating fleet growth.   

The industry, Clarksons concluded, is sitting on an exceptional cash position — but also faces significant risk ahead.